Day 13 of the US–Israel–Iran War: March 12, 2026
1. TIMELINE (last 24 hours)
All times UTC.
- ~00:00–03:00. The IRGC, jointly with Hezbollah, claimed to have conducted "the most powerful operation since the start of the war": ballistic missiles fired at Tel Aviv and Haifa, with 50+ targets on Israeli territory claimed hit. [party statement — IRGC]
- ~02:00. Kuwait International Airport damaged by a drone. Al Jazeera.
- ~03:30. A drone fell in the upscale Creek Harbour district of Dubai: four people wounded. CNBC.
- ~05:00. Two tankers attacked in Iraqi territorial waters — the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Malta-flagged Zefyros, both engulfed in fire. One crew member (an Indian national) killed. Iraqi oil ports suspended operations. Bloomberg.
- ~06:00. According to Al Jazeera, six vessels were attacked in the Persian Gulf within a single day (kamikaze drones, sea mines). Al Jazeera.
- ~07:00. Iranian state media published the first statement by new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: a pledge to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and to continue strikes on American bases in the region until they are withdrawn. [party statement — Iranian state media] NPR.
- ~09:00. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly formulated three conditions for a ceasefire: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international security guarantees. CBS News.
- ~10:00. The Pentagon acknowledged in a preliminary report that a US Tomahawk missile likely struck the Shajara Tayiba girls' primary school in Minab on February 28 (168–180 killed, mostly children) due to outdated intelligence on a nearby IRGC base. CNN, NPR.
- ~13:00. Trump at a rally in Kentucky declared: "We won" in Iran. The statement was not confirmed by the US military or the Israeli government. Israel had previously stated there is "no timeline for the war's end." [party statement] Al Jazeera.
- ~15:00. Oman evacuated vessels from the Salalah oil terminal as a precautionary measure (the port had been attacked the day before). Bloomberg.
2. CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
Figures vary depending on source and methodology:
| Source | Deaths (total) | Of which civilian | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran's UN Envoy | ≥1,348 | not specified | Iranian casualties only, state figures [party statement] |
| Hengaw (NGO, first 10 days) | ≥4,300 | 390 (9.6%) | includes military; independent verification difficult |
| UNICEF | — | ≥1,100 children killed or wounded | [confirmed — international organisation] |
| Lebanon (local authorities) | ≥634 | not specified | Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure |
| Israel | ≥12 | not specified | Iranian missiles and drones |
| Bahrain | 1 | 1 (woman, 29) | Iranian strike on a residential building in Manama [confirmed] |
Minab school (February 28, Hormozgan province): Iranian media report 168–180 killed, mostly children. Investigations by NBC News, Time, Bellingcat, and The Intercept point to a US Tomahawk cruise missile. The Pentagon's preliminary report acknowledges a probable error due to outdated target coordinates. Human Rights Watch is calling for an investigation as a war crime. Trump denied US involvement prior to the report's release.
Displaced persons: Refugees International reports 884,000+ internally displaced persons in the first 10 days. In Lebanon, more than 300,000 people have been left homeless and shelters are overcrowded.
3. PARTIES' POSITIONS
USA (Trump). Calls the operation "successful": "We won" (Kentucky, March 12). Previously promised to end the war "soon" but not "this week." Publicly rejected responsibility for the school strike; investigation ongoing. PBS.
Israel. States there is "no timeline for the war's end." The IDF reports intercepting most Iranian missiles and drones. The operation is named "Epic Fury." [party statement]
Iran (President Pezeshkian). Three conditions for peace: recognition of Iran's rights, reparations, guarantees of non-aggression. Foreign Ministry: "negotiations are impossible while strikes continue." New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (appointed March 8): threats to attack American bases. [party statement — Iranian state media] The National.
Russia. Lavrov: the American–Israeli war creates a risk of nuclear proliferation. Putin expressed "unwavering" support for Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment. Has not publicly offered military assistance to Tehran. Al Jazeera.
China. MFA (Mao Ning, March 2–6): "gross violation of Iran's sovereignty," "violation of international law," calls for an immediate ceasefire. Has not offered military assistance. Chinese MFA.
EU. Calls for "maximum restraint" and respect for international law. Council of the EU. No unified position: CFR describes Europe's response as "disjointed."
France (Macron). Military actions "beyond international law undermine global stability"; demands an emergency UN session. France, together with China and Russia, has been in contact with Tehran on the question of a ceasefire.
UK (Starmer). London did not participate in the strikes; initially restricted the use of Diego Garcia, then lifted the restrictions. Providing "defensive military support."
Gulf States. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. Kuwait announced the downing of 8 drones. Oman maintained a neutral stance; its port of Salalah was attacked. Gulf News.
4. NARRATIVE DIVERGENCES
| Event/topic | US/Israeli version | Iranian/allied version |
|---|---|---|
| Strike on Minab school | Trump: "We were not involved." Pentagon: "Likely an error due to outdated data," investigation ongoing | Iran: deliberate destruction of a civilian facility, 180 children. Al Jazeera: "likely deliberate" |
| Military campaign outcome | USA: "Iranian fleet destroyed," "missile strike capability suppressed" | IRGC: "most powerful operation since the start of the war conducted," 50+ targets in Israel hit |
| Diplomatic context at the war's start | USA/Israel: preemptive strike against nuclear threat (party framing) | Iran, Oman: on February 27 there was a "breakthrough" in negotiations — Tehran agreed to IAEA verification. The strike came the following day. House of Commons Library |
| Civilian casualties | USA/Israel: emphasis on military targets; civilian losses not publicly disputed | Iran: "10,000 civilian facilities struck" (cannot be independently verified) |
| Peace prospects | Trump: "ending soon," "we won"; Israel: "no timeline" | Iran: ceasefire only possible upon fulfillment of three conditions, including reparations |
5. INFORMATION WAR AND PROPAGANDA
USA/Israel. The operation is named "Epic Fury" — a militarist narrative of grandeur. Iranians have dubbed it "Epic Mistake" in response. Trump uses the word "won" while combat continues — a classic case of premature triumphalism. The US described strikes as "precision strikes" until the school incident was acknowledged.
Iran. The figure of "10,000 civilian facilities" is overtly propagandistic — physically impossible to verify. State media publish footage of Iranian missile launches without confirming hits. Narrative: "we were attacked in the middle of negotiations" — factually corroborated by Oman (a neutral party).
Russia. Lavrov's statement on nuclear proliferation risk is an attempt to intimidate the West while simultaneously offering no real assistance to Iran. Chatham House points to "the limits of Russian leverage."
Western media. Breitbart describes the new Supreme Leader as "more dangerous than his father" — an emotional frame without a source basis. Several outlets use the term "destruction" of Iranian military infrastructure without independent verification.
Silences. Israeli media downplay civilian casualties in Iran. Iranian media publish no data on military losses. The US has not disclosed American military casualties (CBS News notes their "scale is beginning to emerge").
6. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
Oil. Brent and WTI: prices have risen approximately 17% from pre-February 28 levels, exceeding $110/bbl at peak moments (Bloomberg). Iran's IRGC threatens $200/bbl. CNBC. The IEA launched the largest strategic reserve release in history — 400 million barrels — but failed to stabilize prices. Washington Post.
Strait of Hormuz. De facto collapse: Windward AI records only two Iranian vessels and zero inbound commercial traffic as of March 9. The IRGC declared "not one litre of oil" will pass through. Al Jazeera. Iraq has suspended oil ports.
Other sectors. ~30% of global fertilizer (nitrogen) exports and ~21% of aluminium imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Humanitarian aid supply chains are broken, driving up food and medicine costs. CFR.
Recession risks. IMF: every 10% rise in oil prices adds +0.4% inflation and −0.15% to global economic growth. With a closed Strait of Hormuz and current dynamics, there is a risk of technical recession for a number of economies. PBS.
7. HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
Displacement. 884,000+ refugees in the first 10 days (UNHCR). Lebanon: 300,000+ homeless, shelters overcrowded. Refugees International.
Air travel. Airspace over Iran, and partially over Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Oman, is closed. Russia evacuated ~59,000 tourists (284 flights, March 2–11), with the operation concluding by March 15.
Humanitarian access. Active combat and closed airspace significantly restrict access for the UN, ICRC, and NGOs inside Iran. CFR: the war is "breaking the global humanitarian aid system."
Children. UNICEF: more than 1,100 children killed or wounded. Schools in strike zones closed. The Minab school strike is the largest single incident involving child casualties.
8. FORECASTS AND RISKS
Baseline scenario. The war transitions to a maritime phase: Iran escalates attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz, while the US and allies protect shipping. Ceasefire negotiations have not begun, but Iran's conditions have been formally articulated — opening a diplomatic channel.
Escalation. Full mining of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would trigger an energy crisis exceeding the scale of the 1973 oil embargo. The IRGC threatens to strike US military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and other Gulf states. An attack on a base causing American casualties could sharply expand the military operation. CNBC.
De-escalation. Carnegie: China and Russia do not intend to intervene militarily but may act as mediators. Oman maintains neutrality and has experience with Iranian–American back channels. Trump is sending contradictory signals ("won" vs. "not finished") — which may indicate a search for an exit.
Chatham House: the war exposes "the limits of Russian leverage" in the region. Al Jazeera Opinion: Russia and China are providing Iran with an intelligence picture without becoming belligerents.
9. WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
- US/Israeli response to Iran's three conditions. The presence or absence of a reaction will determine whether negotiations begin.
- Mojtaba Khamenei's posture. His first public appearance was a verbal statement via state media. His first video address or direct engagement in negotiations will signal the new leadership's capacity and willingness for political maneuver.
- Scale of attacks on Gulf vessels. Six vessels in one day is the highest figure since the war began. Further escalation or a de facto naval blockade will determine oil prices and the US response.
- Investigation into the Minab school strike. The Pentagon's final report and the decision on its release will affect domestic political pressure on Trump and the position of allies.
- Actions by Iraq and Oman. Iraq has suspended oil ports — a possible move by Baghdad away from neutrality. Oman evacuated vessels from Salalah — the question is how long it can maintain its role as a neutral mediator.