Iran, Day 14: Strike on Tehran Rally, KC-135, Oil at $114

1. TIMELINE — March 12–13, 2026 (UTC)

March 12

• ~04:00 UTC. Israeli Air Force carried out another wave of strikes on Tehran. According to Al Jazeera, thick smoke hung over the city. The IDF reports ~7,600 strikes on Iran and ~1,100 on Lebanon since the operation began.
• ~14:00 UTC. A US KC-135 tanker aircraft crashed in western Iraq. All six crew members were killed — CNBC, NPR. CENTCOM stated the loss was not caused by enemy or friendly fire; the Shia militia "Islamic Resistance of Iraq" claimed responsibility for downing the aircraft.
• ~17:00 UTC. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei released his first written address since being appointed (March 9). He did not appear on screen — the statement was read aloud by another person. Khamenei demanded the Hormuz blockade be maintained as a "pressure instrument," called for the closure of all US bases in the region, and promised continued strikes on Israel and US assets — CNBC, NPR, Al Jazeera.
• ~21:00 UTC. Iran warned the US that further escalation would be a "grave miscalculation" for which Trump would pay — Al Jazeera.

March 13

• ~03:00 UTC. Iran launched a new salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel. Two people wounded, buildings damaged in the north of the country — Al Jazeera Live.
• ~05:00–07:00 UTC. A new wave of Iranian attacks on Gulf states: explosions near Dubai (air defense intercepted a missile), Saudi Arabia repelled dozens of drones, alarms in Bahrain — Al Jazeera.
• ~08:30 UTC. Israel struck Ferdowsi Square in Tehran, where a state-organized Quds Day rally was taking place. Thousands were chanting "Death to Israel." According to Iran's IRNA agency, 1 woman was killed by shrapnel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani were present at the rally. Israel had warned in advance of its intent to strike the location — Al Jazeera, PBS.
• ~12:00 UTC. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated at a briefing that Iran's ballistic missile capability had been "functionally destroyed" and that the Strait of Hormuz was "nothing to worry about" — while simultaneously confirming the deployment of a Marine Expeditionary Unit (2,200 Marines) to the region — CNBC, ABC News.
• ~13:00 UTC. Hegseth claimed Mojtaba Khamenei is "wounded and allegedly disfigured" as a result of the strikes. [stated position — no independent confirmation] — Stars and Stripes.
• ~15:00 UTC. The UN Security Council held a session on the Iranian nuclear sanctions program. The US and allies clashed with Russia and China, who sought to block the discussion — Pakistan Today.

2. CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

Iran. According to Iran's Ministry of Health, at least 1,444 people have been killed and 18,551 wounded since February 28 — Al Jazeera. These include 200 children and 11 healthcare workers. Iran claims ~10,000 civilian sites have been struck [stated position]. HRANA (human rights organization) documented 10 civilians killed and 91 wounded on March 12 alone — HRANA. The UN reports 3.2 million internally displaced — Al Jazeera. A strike on a school in Minab that killed ~175 people, most of them children, has been specifically documented [not independently confirmed].

Israel. At least 15 Israelis killed and more than 2,000 wounded in Iranian missile strikes.

US military. Total deaths: 13 (7 in combat, 6 KC-135 crew), ~140 wounded — NPR.

Gulf states. Kuwait — 11 dead, UAE — 4, Saudi Arabia — 2, Oman — 3, Bahrain — 1 (figures as of March 12). The UAE recorded 174 ballistic missiles and 541 drones — some broke through air defenses and struck Dubai Airport, Jebel Ali port, and Palm Jumeirah — Carnegie.

Lebanon. 687 killed (including 98 children) in Israel's parallel offensive.

Data discrepancies: The Iranian government and independent human rights monitors at HRANA report similar civilian death tolls; the US and Israel have not published their own figures on Iranian civilian casualties.

3. POSITIONS OF THE PARTIES

• USA (Trump): "The war is going very well. We are ahead of schedule. More damage has been done than expected." Trump told Republicans the conflict could end "pretty quickly" and predicted oil prices would fall — Axios, Al Jazeera.
• USA (Pentagon / Hegseth): Objective is to destroy Iran's ability to project power beyond its borders. Ballistic missile production "functionally destroyed." No "obvious signs" of mines in Hormuz — CBS News.
• Israel (IDF): ~7,600 strikes on Iran, ~1,100 on Lebanon. "No time limit" — Al Jazeera.
• Iran (Khamenei Jr.): The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, all US bases in the region must shut down, attacks will continue. Negotiations with the US are "not on the agenda" (Foreign Minister Araghchi) — The Hill.
• Russia (MFA, UN): US and Israeli strikes are "another unprovoked act of armed aggression." Russia submitted a UN Security Council draft resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire — it failed (in favor: Russia, China, Pakistan, Somalia) — Democracy Now.
• China (MFA): "A gross violation of Iran's sovereignty; China strongly condemns it." Called for an immediate ceasefire and resumption of negotiations. Abstained on the UNSC resolution condemning Iranian strikes on Gulf states — Chinese MFA, UN News.
• EU / UK / France / Germany: In a joint statement, Starmer, Macron, and Scholz condemned Iranian counterstrikes and called for diplomacy. France authorized the US to use French bases. Europe overall is "confused and divided" in its assessment of US-Israeli actions — CFR, Euronews.
• Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc.): Policy of "absolute military neutrality," despite large-scale Iranian strikes on their territories. Qatar warned of "catastrophic consequences" for the world — Euronews. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have issued warnings of retaliatory measures but are refraining from action.

4. NARRATIVE DISCREPANCIES

5. INFORMATION WAR AND PROPAGANDA

USA/Israel. The "denuclearization" and "regime destruction" framing sets a bar that is not backed by evidence: the IAEA confirmed that underground nuclear facilities have not been destroyed. The contradiction between "Hormuz is not a problem" and "we are deploying Marines" is a glaring gap between the public narrative and actual military planning. Hegseth's claim that Khamenei is "wounded and disfigured" is an information attack on the new leader's legitimacy, unsupported by any evidence.

Iran. State television broadcast the Quds Day rally as a show of regime strength — even as that same rally came under Israeli strikes. Khamenei delivered his address with no video or audio proof of his viability, which itself became an information opportunity for the adversary. Iranian authorities have completely blocked the internet inside the country — Meduza: "we know almost nothing about how Iranians are experiencing the war."

CIA / intelligence services. Meduza documented a "numbers station" operating in Western Europe, broadcasting sequences of digits in Farsi — presumably CIA communication with agents inside Iran.

Russia / China. The "unprovoked aggression" narrative brackets out Iran's nuclear program and its missile strikes on Israel. Tehran's prior actions go unmentioned.

6. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

Oil. Brent reached $114/barrel — the highest since the COVID-19 period — Capital.com. As of March 12 — around $92–94 [different sources report a spread depending on the trading session]. UNCTAD: the largest supply disruption in world oil market history — ~20 million barrels/day blocked.

USA. Retail gasoline prices rose more than 10% to $3.32/gallon. Trump promises a decline "soon" — CNBC. Analysts warn further increases risk a recession — Axios.

Gulf / logistics. Jebel Ali port (Dubai) was on fire, operations suspended. The International Humanitarian City in Dubai has nearly halted — CFR. The Aramco Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 barrels/day) was temporarily shut down after drone debris struck it. Freight rates, insurance premiums, and bunker fuel costs all surged sharply. Rising food prices are particularly painful for the world's poorest importers.

China and India — the largest importers of Middle Eastern oil — are under the greatest pressure; both are calling for de-escalation without taking concrete action.

7. HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

Displacement. UN: up to 3.2 million Iranians have left their homes — Al Jazeera. Refugees International describes the situation as "catastrophic" — Refugees International.

Humanitarian access. Complete internet blackout inside Iran. Humanitarian hubs in the UAE are under attack. Supplies of water, food, and medicine to conflict zones are critically disrupted. UN OHCHR: "talks are the only way out."

Airspace. Iran is closed to civilian aviation. Routes through the Gulf are disrupted. Foreign nationals were evacuated from Iran in the first days of the war; access is now closed.

Infrastructure. Iran reports strikes on hospitals, schools, and residential areas [stated position]. Independent verification is limited due to lack of journalist access.

8. FORECASTS AND RISKS

Baseline scenario. The war continues at its current intensity for another 2–4 weeks. The US and Israel gradually exhaust priority targets while Iran retains asymmetric response capabilities (drones, missiles, Hormuz). An informal "exit without negotiations" is possible as Iran's command structure is physically degraded — Allianz Research.

Escalation. If Khamenei Jr. is dead or incapacitated, the command hierarchy could collapse and control could shift to the IRGC, eliminating any negotiation potential. Iranian attacks on Gulf states could draw Saudi Arabia into a direct military response. Shia proxy forces in Iraq and Yemen (Houthis) could expand the front — Atlantic Council.

De-escalation. Pressure from China and India (both major buyers of Iranian oil) and the economic losses of Gulf states create incentives for mediation. Qatar and Oman have historically served as intermediaries between Washington and Tehran. Neither side has publicly stated a willingness to negotiate — Carnegie.

Nuclear risk. The IAEA confirmed that underground enrichment facilities (Natanz/Fordow) have not been destroyed; the volume of enriched uranium Iran has stockpiled is unknown under wartime conditions. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) assesses that 12 days of strikes are insufficient to fully eliminate the program — ISIS Reports.

9. WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

1. Public appearance of Mojtaba Khamenei. Video or audio proof of his viability (or its absence) will determine whether Iran retains unified political command.
2. Actual status of the Strait of Hormuz. Any shift in the intensity of Iranian mining or in tanker passage will instantly affect oil prices and the negotiating positions of all parties.
3. Shia proxy forces. Activity by the Houthis (Yemen) and the "Islamic Resistance of Iraq" is an indicator of front expansion.
4. China's position. If Beijing moves from verbal condemnation to concrete diplomatic action (emergency talks, mediation), the dynamics will shift dramatically.
5. Internal situation in Iran. The complete internet blackout conceals the actual mood of the population. The first signs of internal protests or fractures within the IRGC will be a key indicator of regime resilience.