1. Timeline (March 17–18, 2026, UTC)
March 17
- ~02:00 UTC. Israel strikes Tehran: command centers, launch sites, air defense systems. Facilities in Shiraz (internal security forces command center, ballistic missile position) and Tabriz also hit. Euronews [confirmed]
- ~04:30 UTC. Israel announces the elimination of Ali Larijani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij forces. Washington Post [confirmed — Iran officially acknowledged]
- ~06:00 UTC. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirms the deaths of Larijani, his son Morteza, chief of staff Alireza Bayat, and several bodyguards. Al Jazeera [confirmed]
- ~08:00 UTC. IDF states that commanders have been granted expedited authority to eliminate senior Iranian and Lebanese figures without standard prior approval. Times of Israel [party statement]
- ~09:00 UTC. Joe Kent, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, publicly announces his resignation. In a post on X he writes: "Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation. We started this war under pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." Axios [confirmed]
- ~11:00 UTC. Trump publicly rebukes NATO allies for refusing to join a freedom-of-navigation mission in the Strait of Hormuz; threatens that NATO will have a "very bad future." CNN [confirmed]
- ~13:00 UTC. A drone strike on a UAE oil facility sparked a fire. One person killed in Abu Dhabi in Iranian attacks. Al Jazeera [confirmed]
- ~15:00 UTC. Amnesty International publishes an investigation: a strike on the Shajarah Ta'iyah school in Minab, Iran on February 28 killed at least 170 people, mostly girls. The organization determines that a US Tomahawk cruise missile was used. Amnesty International [confirmed — independent investigation]
March 18 (events up to report compilation time)
- ~01:00 UTC. IRGC announces a "revenge" retaliatory strike for Larijani's death: Khorramshahr-4 and Qadr missiles with cluster warheads fired at Tel Aviv and central Israel. IRGC claims to have struck "over 100 military and security targets." Al Jazeera [party statement — no independent verification of number of targets struck]
- ~02:30 UTC. Two people killed in the Tel Aviv area by the Iranian missile strike. Shrapnel damaged a railway station. Several people wounded. CNBC [confirmed — Israeli emergency services]
- ~03:00 UTC. Burning fragments from intercepted missiles rain down on residential areas of Dubai. Al Jazeera [confirmed — video footage]
- ~05:00 UTC. Iran threatens strikes against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. CNBC [party statement]
- ~08:00 UTC. Brent crude reaches $108 per barrel. Fortune [confirmed]
2. Civilian Casualties
Iran
Figures diverge between sources:
- Hengaw (human rights organization specializing in Iran): over 18 days of war — 5,300 killed, of whom 511 are civilians (120 children, 160 women) and 4,789 military personnel. Hengaw
- HRANA (Iranian human rights organization): as of March 17 — 3,114 killed, of whom 1,354 are civilians (43.5%), 1,138 military, 622 unidentified. The discrepancy with Hengaw is significant — different counting methodologies.
- Special case — Minab school strike (February 28): Amnesty International documented at least 170 killed, most of them schoolgirls. The organization classifies the strike as a violation of international humanitarian law. The US has not confirmed responsibility. Amnesty International
Israel
Since the start of the war, 15 civilians have been killed and more than 3,329 wounded (Israeli Ministry of Health). On March 18, 2 more killed in the Tel Aviv area. CBS News
US (military casualties)
According to the Pentagon, 13 US military personnel have been killed since the start of the conflict. [confirmed]
Gulf states
Iranian strikes against the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia: 8 killed (including 2 military personnel), 157 wounded. A terminal at Dubai airport was partially destroyed and a fire broke out at Jebel Ali port. Human Rights Watch classifies a number of the strikes as unlawful due to damage to civilian infrastructure.
3. Positions of the Parties
United States
Trump dismissed criticism over Kent's resignation, calling him "soft on security." At the same time he demanded allies join the mission to open the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a "very bad future" for NATO. CNN
Israel
IDF confirms the eliminations of Larijani, Soleimani, and, according to some sources, also Ali Khatib. Describes the operations as "precision strikes on command infrastructure." Fox News [party statement]
Iran
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (appointed March 9, son of the slain Ali Khamenei) has not appeared publicly — media report questions about his health following his wounding on February 28. Times of Israel The IRGC is operating autonomously. Official position: every elimination will receive a "decisive response." Al Jazeera
EU
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: "This is not our war, we did not start it." German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul: Berlin has no intention of participating in military operations. Spain — categorical refusal. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas: "We have no appetite to change the mandate [of the EU naval operation]." General consensus: "We are US allies, but we do not understand their actions and were not consulted." Defense News
United Kingdom
Prime Minister Starmer expresses concern but refuses to make specific military commitments at Hormuz. TIME
Russia
Russian Foreign Ministry (Lavrov) criticizes the US and Israel, warns of nuclear proliferation risk. Russia abstained in UN Security Council votes critical of Iran. Intelligence support for Iran is confirmed by analysts — the Khayyam optical reconnaissance satellite (formerly Kanopus-V, transferred to Iran) provides round-the-clock monitoring. Al Jazeera [unconfirmed — Moscow denies military support]
China
China's Foreign Ministry demanded an immediate cessation of military operations. Limited material assistance to Iran (missile components) — according to Western sources; Beijing denies it. Diplomatic mediation is declared, with no concrete results. Chinese MFA
Regional states
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain are under Iranian missile and drone fire but officially distance themselves from the war. Qatar is acting as a mediator in diplomatic contacts. Oman provides back-channel negotiation channels. The National
4. Narrative Discrepancies
| Event / topic | Version A | Version B |
|---|---|---|
| Justification for the war | US/Israel: Iran's nuclear program posed an existential threat; the preemptive strike averted a catastrophe (Times of Israel) | Kent (former US NCTC), Russia, EU, China: Iran posed no imminent threat; the war was started under Israeli pressure (Axios) |
| Iranian civilian death toll | Hengaw: 511 civilians out of 5,300 killed (9.6%) — the majority of victims are military (Hengaw) | HRANA: 1,354 civilians out of 3,114 killed (43.5%) — nearly half of victims are civilians (Al Jazeera / HRANA) |
| Minab school strike | Amnesty International: US Tomahawk missile, gross violation of IHL, 170 killed (Amnesty) | US: no comment; IDF: an IRGC facility was located in the area; casualty figures are Iranian propaganda [party statement, no official denial] |
| Larijani assassination | Israel: "neutralization of a terrorist organization's leadership" (Fox News) | Iran / Al Jazeera / some European media: political assassination of a senior state official, violation of international law (Al Jazeera) |
| Russian and Chinese support | Western sources, Al Jazeera: intelligence and material assistance to Iran via satellites and component supplies (Al Jazeera) | Moscow and Beijing: exclusively diplomatic position, no military support |
5. Information Warfare and Propaganda
US and Israel
- "Precision strikes" framing: IDF systematically uses the language of "surgical strikes on command infrastructure." Amnesty's Minab investigation calls this narrative into question.
- Silence: The Pentagon did not comment on Amnesty's report on the school strike. No official investigation has been announced.
- Discrediting internal critics: Trump immediately labeled Kent "soft on security" without substantively addressing his accusations.
Iran
- Inflated target counts: IRGC claimed strikes on "over 100 targets" in Israel — no independent verification conducted.
- Symbolic framing: the strike was named a "revenge operation" — an appeal to audience emotions.
- New Supreme Leader's status: Iranian state media publish statements from Mojtaba Khamenei, but his location and health are classified.
Russia
- TASS and RIA Novosti emphasize the Europeans' refusal to help the US — in the context of a narrative about "the collapse of Western unity."
- Kent's resignation is framed as "an admission of the war's illegality from within the administration itself."
Iranian proxy media (Fars News)
Affiliated with the IRGC. Enemy (US/Israel) casualty figures are systematically inflated; own losses are suppressed or understated.
6. Economic Consequences
Oil and gas
- Brent: $108.17 (+4.59% on the day of March 18). Up ~80% since the start of the conflict. CNBC
- WTI: ~$96 (record spread with Brent of ~$50 vs. the usual $5–8)
- Dubai Crude (Asian benchmark): ~$155 per barrel — all-time high
- Citi forecasts Brent rising to $120 in the coming days. Fortune
Strait of Hormuz
Shipping through the strait (roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies) has been nearly halted since the start of the conflict. Allies refused Trump's request for tanker escort; expansion of the EU naval operation's mandate from the Red Sea to Hormuz is blocked. Al Jazeera
Threats of new escalation
Iran has threatened strikes on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. A strike on a gas processing plant in Bushehr province (according to Times of Israel) has already added pressure to the LNG market.
IEA
The IEA's March report documented a partial release of strategic reserves — the market viewed the measure as insufficient. IEA
7. Humanitarian Situation
Internal displacement in Iran
According to UNHCR (as of March 12), between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households are temporarily displaced — between 1.6 and 3.2 million people. The main flow is from Tehran and urban centers toward the north and rural areas. The figure continues to grow. UNHCR
Refugees
Iran was hosting 1.65 million refugees (predominantly Afghans) — they find themselves in a particularly vulnerable position. The flow across borders remains "relatively modest" for now, but neighboring countries are preparing for a possible mass wave. Al Jazeera
Humanitarian access
UNHCR reports difficulties with access. Humanitarian response funding stands at only 15% of needs ($454.2 million for 2026) as of the end of February. USA for UNHCR
Infrastructure
Dubai Airport temporarily closed several times. Jebel Ali Port — fire. Facilities in Iran (hospitals, power plants) — data unavailable due to restricted journalist access.
8. Forecasts and Risks
Baseline scenario
Iranian retaliatory strikes will continue in response to each significant elimination. The IRGC retains operational control amid a weakened national political leadership. The war is taking on the character of an asymmetric, protracted confrontation with periodic escalations.
Escalation scenario
An Iranian strike on Saudi Arabian or UAE oil infrastructure could draw in new participants. Citi warns of $120/bbl in the near term. If Mojtaba Khamenei's incapacitation or death is confirmed, a legitimacy crisis in Iranian governance is possible with unpredictable consequences.
De-escalation scenario
Qatar and Oman are conducting back-channel negotiations. Kent's resignation and pressure from European allies are creating domestic political pressure on Washington. However, no concrete negotiating initiatives have been publicly recorded.
Key risks
- Iran's use of cluster munitions in populated areas of Israel — Human Rights Watch has already flagged IHL violations on both sides
- The fate of the new Supreme Leader: his incapacitation creates a command vacuum in a country with a nuclear program
- The rift between the US and NATO allies threatens structural consequences for the alliance
9. What to Watch Next
- Mojtaba Khamenei's public appearance — confirmation or denial of his capacity will determine the IRGC command chain.
- Iranian strike on Gulf oil infrastructure — the threat was issued on March 18; its execution would push oil above $120 and could draw Saudi Arabia into the conflict.
- Washington's response to Amnesty's Minab investigation — acknowledgment or silence under pressure from the EU and UN.
- Negotiating track through Qatar/Oman — any officially confirmed contact between the US and Iran will signal a possible path to de-escalation.
- UN Security Council vote — Russia and China are pushing for an emergency session; the outcome will show how isolated the US is in the international community.