Iran, Day 26: Bushehr — "Worst-Case Scenario", Trump's 15-Point Plan Rejected

1. TIMELINE: March 24–25, 2026 (UTC)

March 24

• ~01:00–03:00. Iran launched a new wave of ballistic missiles at central Israel — strikes reached the Arad and Dimona areas. According to NBC News, 180+ people were injured; several missiles breached the air defense line, which the outlet described as "a shock to the public" [confirmed — Israeli medical services data].
• ~06:00. The US and Israel struck targets in Iran that Al Jazeera described as "unprecedented in scale." At least 12 people were killed in Tehran's southern suburbs [Iranian side's statement; not independently confirmed].
• ~10:00. The IDF struck southern suburbs of Beirut with prior evacuation warnings. Fighting in Lebanon and Iraq continued to intensify [confirmed — Euronews].
• ~12:00. The US Army struck Anbar province (Iraq) — targeting a pro-Iranian group's headquarters. The target was identified as commander Saad Dawai [Pentagon statement; target status not independently confirmed].
• ~14:00. Trump publicly announced "very productive negotiations" with Iran and a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Washington Post: Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt were named as mediators.
• ~15:00. Iran's Foreign Ministry and IRGC command categorically denied that any negotiations were taking place. Tehran's official formulation: Washington is "negotiating with itself" [confirmed — official Iranian statements, Al Jazeera liveblog].
• ~17:00. According to CBS News, Israel struck the South Pars gas field — Iran's and the world's largest gas field. The extent of damage is being clarified [not independently confirmed].

March 25

• ~02:00. Rosatom began the third phase of personnel evacuation from Bushehr NPP — another 163 Russian specialists were withdrawn; approximately 300 remain. One convoy departed along the road toward the Armenian-Iranian border [Al Arabiya].
• ~04:00. Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev stated that "the situation at Bushehr is unfolding under the worst-case scenario." The IAEA was informed of a strike that hit a location 350 meters from the reactor [confirmed — World Nuclear News].
• ~06:00. Iran officially confirmed receiving the US 15-point plan (transmitted via Pakistan) but called it "maximalist" and rejected it. CNBC: Iran's demands included recognition of "sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz."
• ~08:00. NPR: Iran put forward 5 counter-conditions for dialogue. The Pentagon announced the deployment of ~1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
• ~10:00. UN Secretary-General Guterres stated that the war "has spiraled out of control," demanding an immediate ceasefire. Bahrain's initiative in the UN Security Council to use "all necessary means" to open the Strait of Hormuz is facing resistance from Russia and China [UN News].
• ~12:00. Russia officially expressed "outrage" over strikes near Bushehr, warning of the threat of an environmental catastrophe. Shell's CEO publicly stated that Europe could face a fuel shortage within weeks.
• ~14:00. Brent crude: $101.47/bbl (-2.9% for the day) — market reaction to the negotiation signal. WTI: $90.08 (-2.5%) [CNBC].

2. CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

Figures systematically diverge between sources. The actual numbers are likely higher due to disrupted access to strike zones and communications blackouts.

Iran

• Hengaw (6th report, day 21 — March 20): at least 5,900 killed, of whom 595 are civilians [confirmed — methodology: verified cases only].
• HRANA (Human Rights News Agency): more than 1,400 civilians killed in the first three weeks, including at least 214 children [not independently confirmed; cited by Iran International].
• UNICEF: at least 2,100 children killed or wounded since the start of the operation [confirmed].
• Iranian Red Crescent: more than 82,000 civilian structures damaged or destroyed [Iranian side's statement].

Methodological discrepancy: Hengaw records ~595 civilian deaths over 21 days; HRANA records 1,400+ over the same period. The difference is more than twofold. Hengaw operates on a case-by-case verification principle; HRANA aggregates data from local witnesses without individual verification. The true figure is unknown.

Lebanon

• Lebanon's Ministry of Health: at least 1,094 people killed in Israeli strikes from March 2 to March 25, including 121 children [confirmed — official source; Al Jazeera].

Israel

• According to Israeli authorities: 15 killed, more than 180 wounded in Iranian missile strikes on March 24 in the Arad and Dimona areas [confirmed — NBC News].

Iraq

• At least 96 people killed in Iraq since the start of the conflict — as a result of US strikes on pro-Iranian formations and retaliatory attacks [confirmed — local authority data, Al Jazeera].

UAE and the Persian Gulf

• UAE MoD: 357 ballistic missiles, 1,815 drones, and 15 cruise missiles launched since February 28 — the majority intercepted [statement by the UAE side]. Data on civilian casualties in the UAE has not been officially released.

USA

• 13 American service members killed since the start of the operation [confirmed — Pentagon data].

3. POSITIONS OF THE PARTIES

USA

President Trump declared the war "won" and announced a 5-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The administration transmitted a 15-point plan to Tehran via Pakistan, envisaging a month-long ceasefire for negotiations. The target date for a settlement is April 9, 2026. Simultaneously, the Pentagon announced the deployment of ~1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division [CNN].

Iran

Tehran confirmed receipt of the US plan, called it "maximalist," and rejected it. According to NPR, Iran put forward 5 counter-conditions: (1) guarantees against future attacks on the IRI; (2) payment of war reparations; (3) recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz; (4) lifting of all sanctions; (5) closure of the nuclear dossier. The new SNSC Secretary is Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr (replacing Ali Larijani, who was killed on March 17) [Al Jazeera].

Israel

The IDF continues operations against Iran, Lebanon (strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut), and Iraqi pro-Iranian formations. Jerusalem has made no official public statements regarding the 15-point plan [statement by the side — the press service is limited to operational data].

Russia

Lavrov characterized the operation as "reckless" and "an unprovoked act of armed aggression." Moscow demands an immediate ceasefire and expressed "outrage" over strikes near Bushehr. Rosatom continues to evacuate personnel [Al Arabiya]. No military assistance is being provided to Iran — despite the declared partnership [Chatham House].

China

China's MFA: the strikes are "a gross violation of sovereignty and a trampling of the UN Charter," with a demand to immediately cease fire [China MFA]. On March 11, at the UN Security Council vote on a resolution condemning Iranian attacks on Gulf states, China abstained (did not veto): 13 in favor, 2 abstentions (China and Russia). No military assistance is being provided to Iran.

EU

The EU calls for de-escalation but has not adopted a unanimous binding decision. Germany and the UK warned of an imminent energy shortage in Europe. The UK released an analytical briefing for parliament [House of Commons Library].

Regional States

Pakistan: declared readiness to host peace talks and served as the transmitter of the US 15-point plan [TIME].

UAE: publicly supports opening the Strait of Hormuz; is subject to missile and drone attacks from Iran.

Bahrain: initiated a draft resolution in the UN Security Council on the use of "all necessary measures" to open Hormuz — facing resistance from Russia and China [Security Council Report].

4. NARRATIVE DIVERGENCES

5. INFORMATION WARFARE AND PROPAGANDA

USA / Israel

• Framing "victory" amid ongoing fighting. Trump declared the war "won" on the same day the Pentagon announced the deployment of new troops. The goal: to create a domestic political narrative of success regardless of the actual situation on the battlefield.
• "Negotiations" as a tool for a pause. Announcing negotiations gives the US a five-day respite without a formal ceasefire — and without symmetrical obligations for the Iranian side. Iran received nothing in return for a suspension of Iranian attacks, which in practice did not follow.
• Silence on Bushehr. Neither the US nor Israel publicly commented on the strike 350 m from the reactor and the Rosatom evacuation. This allows them to avoid accusations of attacking a nuclear facility, but the silence itself becomes a signal for markets and allies.

Iran

• "No negotiations" — a resilience narrative. Public denial of dialogue signals to the domestic audience the authorities' unwavering stance, while simultaneously creating a contradiction: Tehran received the plan, studied it, and put forward counter-conditions — which is itself a negotiating act.
• "Sovereignty over Hormuz" as a deliberately unpassable condition. A demand framed as a matter of principle effectively blocks negotiations on current terms — which may be tactically advantageous for Tehran as it plays for time.
• Fars News (affiliated with the IRGC): is building a narrative of "Arab brothers betrayed Iran" regarding the UAE and Bahrain, attempting to fracture Arab support for the Western coalition.

Russia

• TASS and RIA Novosti are actively amplifying Rosatom's data on the situation at Bushehr — emphasizing nuclear risks and shifting moral responsibility onto the US/Israel. This simultaneously protects Rosatom's business reputation and reinforces the anti-Western narrative.
• Silence: Russian state media does not mention that Russia abstained (did not veto) at the UN Security Council vote on the resolution condemning Iranian attacks on Gulf states — which directly contradicts the narrative of "full support" for Iran.

6. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

Oil

• Brent: $101.47/bbl (-2.9% on March 25). Peak value during the conflict: ~$119.50–126. Pre-war (February 27): ~$70 [CNBC, Bloomberg].
• WTI: $90.08/bbl (-2.5%).
• Production in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE fell by a combined total of at least 10 million bbl/day by March 12 — approximately 10% of global supply [Dallas Fed].

Gas and the Strait of Hormuz

The strike on South Pars on March 24 increased pressure on the LNG market. The IRGC continues to threaten full closure of Hormuz. The IEA characterized the crisis as "the greatest challenge to global energy and food security in history" [Al Jazeera]. 70% of food imports to Gulf states were disrupted by mid-March — the region depends on Hormuz for more than 80% of its caloric supply.

Consumer Prices

• USA: gasoline ~$4/gallon (+80¢ over the month), diesel ~$5/gallon (+$1.30) [Virginia Tech News].
• Europe: Shell CEO — a possible fuel shortage within weeks if the Hormuz crisis persists.

Macroeconomics

The Dallas Fed estimates global real GDP losses at 2.9 percentage points annualized if the blockade persists into Q2 2026 [Dallas Fed]. Goldman Sachs published an analysis of price consequences [Goldman Sachs Insights].

7. HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

Internal Displacement in Iran

• UNHCR (data as of March 12): up to 3.2 million Iranians are temporarily displaced within the country.
• Particularly vulnerable: ~1.65 million Afghan refugees in Iran, whose evacuation routes and access to assistance are restricted.
• Iranian Red Crescent: ~20,000 civilian buildings damaged, including 16,000 residential, 77 medical facilities, 65 schools [Iranian side's statement].

Bushehr NPP — Critical Nuclear Situation

163 Russian Rosatom specialists were evacuated on March 25; approximately 300 remain. A projectile hit a location 350 m from the reactor. No radiation threat has been officially recorded, but the IAEA has limited monitoring access. The Rosatom chief speaks of a "worst-case scenario" [World Nuclear News].

Airspace and Logistics

Airspace over Iran, Iraq, and part of the Persian Gulf is effectively closed to civil aviation. Evacuations of foreign nationals continue, including Russian specialists via the Armenian-Iranian border [Sputnik Armenia].

Humanitarian Funding

UNHCR is requesting $454.2 million for a humanitarian response in Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia in 2026. By March 25, only 15% of the required amount has been received [UNHCR].

8. FORECASTS AND RISKS

Scenario 1: Diplomatic Pause (baseline)

The US and Iran agree through mediators on a technical ceasefire until April 9. Bushehr is temporarily removed from the strike zone. Oil stabilizes around $95–100. Negotiations begin, but the parties' conditions remain incompatible. According to Chatham House, Russia's diplomatic leverage in the current configuration is substantially limited.

Scenario 2: Escalation (high risk)

Iran strikes a "red line" target — Israeli nuclear infrastructure, a US base, or critical infrastructure of a Gulf state. The US and Israel respond with strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including Bushehr. The IAEA records an accident. Oil hits $150+. The question of activating Article 5 arises for NATO allies.

Scenario 3: Destabilization of Iran's State Structures

Continuous airstrikes, the killing of key commanders (Larijani killed March 17, new SNSC chief appointed in an emergency), and economic pressure accelerate the erosion of IRI state institutions. Meduza characterizes this scenario as the most unpredictable: a power vacuum, strengthening of armed factions, chaos on oil markets.

Key Triggers

• A nuclear incident at Bushehr — immediate internationalization and convening of the UN Security Council;
• Full closure of the Strait of Hormuz — oil at $150+ and a global recession;
• Large-scale casualties among 82nd Airborne Division personnel — political pressure on the US Congress;
• Involvement of Pakistan as a nuclear power and the sole active mediator — a destabilizing factor of global scale.

9. WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

1. Bushehr NPP. IAEA monitoring results, the fate of the 300 remaining Rosatom employees, radiation readings in the surrounding areas — data expected within 24–48 hours.
2. Negotiations in Pakistan. Will the first technical round take place? Will Iran accept mediators while publicly denying the very fact of negotiations? Deadline — by April 9.
3. Deployment of the 82nd Airborne Division. Completion of the ~1,000-troop deployment will significantly alter the negotiating context and Iran's military calculations.
4. UN Security Council vote on Hormuz. Bahrain's initiative on "all necessary measures": will Russia and China veto or abstain again? This will determine the legitimacy of a possible naval operation to open the strait.
5. South Pars. The extent of damage from the Israeli strike on March 24 on the world's largest gas field: damage to extraction infrastructure or the pipeline system could radically alter gas market dynamics and provoke Iranian retaliatory strikes on regional energy infrastructure.